Dueling Show Parlays in the #TVGSuper8

I’ve heard in the past about betting horses to show using a parlay – that is, rolling the winnings from a successful Show bet into another Show bet, using all of the proceeds. I’ve no idea how successful this is going to be, but it ought to be fun. In order to make sure it’s not done only using the wisdom of this punter, as narrow as that is, I’m going to use competing Show parlays. We’ll be using Matt Carothers’ TVG Super 8 picks and my own TVG Super 8 picks. Since I’m small potatoes, we’re just going to plan on $2 bets to start.

So, the strings are 1/2/3/5/6/3/11/9 and 8/4/1/7/8/1/4/3. I don’t even match Matt once. That’s perhaps NOT a good sign. On the other hand, since we’re betting these strings to Show, both could be successful in every race.

I’ll update this post as results come in and tweet anything interesting…

Del Mar Race 1:  1 Wendy’s Back (finished 5th) and 8 Rolling Shadow (Winner, so show paid $3)

Del Mar Race 2: 2 Norwegian Spy (4th) and 4 Blissful Lady (6th, bankroll back to $0)

Golden Gate Fields Race 2: 3 Mini Bar (4th) and 1 Sahara Storm (2nd, so show paid $2.60)

Gulfstream Park West Race 10: 5 Richard the Great (2nd, paid $3.20) and 7 Mr. Jordan (Winner, paid $2.80, bankroll now $3.40)

Gulfstream Park West Race 11: 6 Gear Jammer (way back, $0.20 remains in the bankroll) and 8 Telling Tony (way back, $0.40 remains in the bankroll)

Del Mar Race 6: 3 Atomic Rule (5th, $0.20 still sitting) and 1 Crown the Kitten (2nd, paid $2.80, to bring the bankroll back to $3.20)

Del Mar Race 7: 11 All Out Blitz (3rd, paid $4.00, so $4.20 bankroll) and 4 Graycaster (8th, so down to $0.20 in the bankroll)

Del Mar Race 8: 9 Literary Critic (unplaced, leaving 20 cents) and 3 Painting Corner (4th, leaving just the 20 cents)

So, never had Show bets in a row once, but it was minimal and wiped out in the next race. I’m guessing that the picks need to be made with placing in mind, rather than broadly going for a win. As such, it’s probably prudent to avoid favorites that will only return pennies on a show.

Maybe I’ll give that a go next time.

Picking the #TVGSuper8

Another Saturday means another free shot at $100,000 by picking 8 races on TVG. I had good luck two weeks ago, correctly selecting 5 out of 8 winners, for a little payoff of $27.27. Unfortunately, last week made it look like luck, as I could only find two winners. So, we head back in, hoping to get some clarity and to get a shot at the big bucks.

I’m also using a new tool today. I’ve looked at the sports data and analysis from Stats Inc for baseball and football, using it to power my fantasy teams. They’re now venturing into horse racing. TVG allows you to buy a day pass on Race Lens for $10, which you can offset by betting $25 on the day of the pass. Since I’m going to bet $25 on a Super 8 day anyway, it’s basically free.

My first pass at the picks relies on 3 things in Race Lens – research into Jockeys and Trainers, their ‘True Odds’ tab and the morning line. In this first pass, I haven’t re-examined the past performances, so there’s a good chance I’m going to be making one or two changes today.

My Selections
Leg 1 8	Del Mar – R1 Rolling Shadow Jockey: Flavien Prat (+9 ROI in last 90 days, and 55% In The Money) Trainer: Neil Drysdale (+29 ROI in last 90 days, and 36% In The Money) 31.1% win percentage in True Odds Push into the front in the turn, try to hold off Gee Street — Fast pace put Rolling Shadow at the back, but Flavien Prat guided Rolling Shadow through the crowd to win by a neck.	3/1
Leg 2 4	Del Mar – R2 Blissful Lady Jockey: Mario Gutierrez (+56 ROI in last 90 days, but only 24% In The Money) Trainer: Charles Treece (no ROI in last 90 days, -40 in last 2 years) 9.5% win percentage in True Odds Stalk and try to steal it — Blissful Lady stalked along with Norwegian Spy, but neither could make a move as Sally Simpson outpaced Dangerously Close	12/1
Leg 3 1	Golden Gate Fields – R2 Sahara Storm Jockey: J Keith Desormeaux (-77 ROI, 40% ITM) Trainer: Aaron Gryder (+12 ROI, 38% ITM) 43.4% win percentage in True Odds Charge the front at the end to win it — Ran out of room and just missed the win with a late charge	9/5
Leg 4 7	Gulfstream Park West – R10 Mr. Jordan Jockey: Edgard Zayas (-26 ROI in last 90 days, 42% In The Money) Trainer: Edward Plesa, Jr (+374 ROI in last 90 days, 4 of 8 In The Money) 25.5% win percentage in True Odds Front-running all the way — Stayed up front, forcing Richard the Great to use all his energy trying to catch him in the turn as Mr Jordan coasted. So, Mr Jordan pulled away nicely	5/2
Leg 5 8	Gulfstream Park West – R11 Telling Tony Jockey: Jilver Chamafi (+119 ROI in last 90 days, 31% ITM) Trainer: Antonio Sano (+274 ROI in last 90 days, 54% ITM) 7.3% win percentage in True Odds Needs to come from off the pace — May have been back too far. Wide coming out of turn and there was really nothing there. Guess that explains the 15/1!	15/1
Leg 6 1	Del Mar – R6 Crown The Kitten Jockey: Gary Stevens (-40 ROI in last 90 days, but 40% In The Money, and he’s GARY STEVENS!) Trainer: Alfredo Marquez (+10 ROI in last 90 days, though just 1 horse, winning 1 of 2 races) 18.1% win percentage in True Odds Stay on the rail and lead a slow pace to the end — Followed the plan, but Excessive Kid beat him at the line.	7/2
Leg 7 4	Del Mar – R7 Graycaster Jockey: Evin Roman (-26 ROI, and only 18% ITM) Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer (+12 ROI, and 37% ITM) 9.9% win percentage in True Odds Save ground and hope the unknowns don’t have a kick — He did save ground, but had no space to move out of the turn, then had no other gear to shift up into.	8/1
Leg 8 3	Del Mar – R8 Painting Corners Jockey: Flavien Prat (+9 ROI, and 55% ITM) Trainer: Peter Miller (-44 ROI, but 53% ITM) 15.9% win percentage in True Odds Save ground and watch out for Powder’s kick — Couldn’t find a lane to get through, so missed out.	5/2